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(This is NFA, please DYOR)
It is clear to see that $26 has been an extremely important level for $SOL, on a macro level. It has acted as major support and resistance multiple times throughout its history, most notably within the highlighted orange circles and the purple box.
Once the price fell below $26, which had previously acted as significant support twice, it took almost an entire year to reclaim this level, and close above it on the weekly time frame. Therefore, when we see the level tested multiple times in the purple box, and finally break through the major resistance, it is no surprise that the move so far has been this strong.
The next major resistance in this market is the macro 50% level, measuring from the previous bull market peak, to this current bear market low. You can see multiple previous examples of this acting as support and resistance, and at the time of writing it is roughly 25% away.
Note: It is typical of any market to break through on the fourth attempt, and whilst this is technically the fifth, 1 and 2 could easily morph into one.
Since $BTC is the largest crypto, any altcoin’s performance should be measured against its $BTC value. If an altcoin is weak against its $BTC pairing, there is more risk without the reward, and it should be avoided.
Similarly to the last chart, there is a major support and resistance level, shown by the yellow line at 0.0011. It has been tested from both sides of the market; this is shown inside the purple ovals. The price went into accumulation for a year, and put in a double bottom, marked by the orange circles.
It finally broke out of the accumulation range, past the major resistance at 0.0011, and has since been on a stellar move, now within 5% of the macro 50% level. Like I said for SOL/USD, it is likely that we will at the very least experience significant resistance at this level, and could mark an intermediate top.
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Moving the chart onto a log scale shows the large pullbacks for $SOL in the previous bull market. I say ‘pullback’, as these were temporary drawdowns in a pattern of consistent higher highs, and higher lows. I’ve also added the time it took for the price to break through after the pullback; this is shown by the red arrow.
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****If we take an average of the these times and prices, it results in a pullback of 72%, reaching a new high after 117 days. Now this is no exact science, but it is a rough estimate of what we can expect to happen in the next drawdown. So where will that leave us?
Should $SOL reach its major 50% level at $135, a 72% retracement would leave us at about $38, and this is probably the worst case scenario. This would drop us back into the trading ranges shown by the purple rectangles, so $SOL can reaccumulate and reset for the next push higher.
This scenario would lead to a break above the major 50% around 120 days following the top, which currently works out to be April 15th. This will be influenced by $BTC’s price too.
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$SOL is performing particularly strongly at the moment, in both its $USD and $BTC value. Seeing as the fully-fledged bull is yet to arrive, $SOL is shaping up to perform very strongly in the next few years. While it will be unpopular with many that I see a correction very soon, healthy markets need to correct, and it is long term bullish for $SOL to do so.